The Makerfield by-election, set for June 18, 2026, is more than just a local contest; it’s a barometer for national political sentiment. Andy Burnham, the current mayor of Greater Manchester, is seeking to reclaim his parliamentary seat, a victory that could propel him into a leadership challenge against Sir Keir Starmer. However, his path is obstructed by Nigel Farage’s Reform UK and Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britainboth vying to disrupt Labour’s ambitions.
The political landscape in Makerfield is complex, with internal data from Reform UK suggesting a challenging race. A board member of Reform UK, Gawain Towler, acknowledged that Burnham’s presence changes the political climatemaking it a daunting task for Reform to secure victory. This sentiment is echoed in the party’s internal data, which indicates a narrow defeat for Reform UK’s candidate, Robert Kenyon.
Internal data reveals tight race
Internal polling data from Reform UK, seen by The Independent, paints a sobering picture for the party. The data estimates that Labour will secure around 17,500 votes, while Reform UK will garner approximately 16,000 votes. Restore Britain, led by Rupert Lowe, is expected to capture around 2,000 votes, potentially splitting the right-wing vote and tipping the balance in Burnham’s favor.
In percentage terms, this translates to 45.5% for Burnham, 41% for Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon, and 5% for Restore Britain’s Rebecca Shepherd. The data aligns with private polling for Labour, which also suggests a comfortable lead for Burnham. However, a Reform insider hinted that Burnham’s margin could be even larger, around eight points, despite briefings suggesting a narrower gap.
The impact of Restore Britain
Restore Britain, a relatively new player in the political arena, is making waves by siphoning votes from Reform UK. The party, backed by Elon Musk, is attracting voters with a more populist message, much like the UK Independence Party (UKIP) did to the Conservatives in the past. A Reform ally expressed concern that Nigel Farage has lost his wayallowing Reform to be watered down by Tories and failing to maintain a clear, populist stance.
The insider also noted that Restore Britain’s vote is extremely softwith many of their supporters likely to switch to Reform UK on election day. However, Reform UK’s inability to effectively counter Restore Britain’s appeal is a significant weakness in their campaign strategy.
Burnham’s cross-party appeal
Andy Burnham’s campaign is benefiting from his ability to attract voters from across the political spectrum. The Reform insider highlighted that Burnham can mobilize 2026 Labour voters who did not vote in 2026, as well as effectively squeezing votes from the Green Party, Liberal Democrats, and Conservatives. This broad appeal is a formidable challenge for Reform UK, particularly among female voters who supported the party in 2026 but may be deterred by allegations of misogyny surrounding Reform’s candidate, Robert Kenyon.
Despite these challenges, Reform UK is hoping that an increase in the Green vote could take votes away from Burnham. However, a comfortable victory for Burnham would be seen as a significant setback for Reform UK, especially in an area where they recently won all the council seats.
The national implications
The Makerfield by-election is not just about local representation; it has national implications. A victory for Burnham could embolden his leadership ambitions, potentially leading to a challenge against Sir Keir Starmer. However, recent polling suggests that a leadership change may not significantly alter Labour’s electoral fortunes. A survey by Lord Ashcroft polling found that just 20% of voters would back Labour in the next general election if Burnham were leading the party, only 3% behind Reform UK’s polling.
Moreover, the by-election is a test for Reform UK’s ability to consolidate its support and counter the challenge from Restore Britain. The party’s performance in Makerfield will be closely watched, as it could signal their potential to disrupt the political status quo in the next general election.
As the campaign enters its final stages, all eyes are on Makerfield. The outcome of this by-election will not only decide the fate of a single parliamentary seat but also shape the trajectory of national politics in the UK.
