The political landscape in the UK is abuzz with speculation following Andy Burnham’s landslide victory in the Makerfield by-election. His triumph has not only reignited debates within the Labour Party but also set the stage for a potential leadership challenge against Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
Burnham’s win, securing a majority of 9,000 votes over Reform UK, has emboldened his allies to demand Starmer’s resignation within 72 hours. The pressure is mounting, with ministers reportedly urging Starmer to outline a departure timetable and threats of Cabinet resignations looming.
Burnham’s Vision and Starmer’s Defiance
At a rally in Ashton, Burnham made his ambitions clear, calling for real changere-industrialisationand an end to trickle-down economics. He declared, ‘It is our last chance to change, but we are going to take it… we are going to lay out a new path for Britain.’ Despite these calls, Starmer remains defiant, stating he will stand in any leadership contest and has no intention of walking away.
The tension between the two figures is palpable, with reports indicating they have not been in touch since Burnham’s selection as the Makerfield candidate. Starmer, during a housing development tour, claimed credit for the by-election result, urging the party to avoid chaos and internal strife.
The Path to Leadership: Contest or Coronation
Under Labour’s rules, a leadership contest can be triggered if a challenger secures nominations from 81 MPs. Burnham is expected to easily surpass this threshold. The contest would then be decided by party members, with a timetable likely set to run through the summer. Alternatively, a coronation scenario could see Starmer voluntarily step down, allowing Burnham to take over almost immediately.
Baroness Harman, a recent adviser to Starmer, has called for a process where MPs choose the next PM, suggesting a woman should also be on the ballot. Meanwhile, Labour backbenchers previously loyal to Starmer are now advocating for his resignation, citing Burnham’s unprecedented success.
Broader Implications and Political Reactions
The implications of Burnham’s victory extend beyond party politics. Interest rates on government debt have ticked up slightly, and public sector borrowing has surged to a record level for May, outside of the Covid peak. JP Morgan has warned of a high risk that Burnham would overhaul the government’s fiscal rules, despite his recent assurances to the contrary.
In other political developments, the Conservatives secured a significant win in the Aberdeen South by-election, turning the race into a referendum on oil and gas drilling in the North Sea. The SNP, however, held onto Arbroath and Broughty Ferry. Additionally, a by-election to replace Burnham as Greater Manchester Mayor is set for July 30, with Labour’s chances boosted by recent changes to the electoral system.
Nigel Farage, acknowledging Reform UK’s struggle to counter the message of ‘vote Burnham, get Starmer out,’ blamed the split-right vote for their lower-than-expected performance. He directly appealed to supporters of Rupert Lowe’s outfit, emphasizing Reform UK’s role as the challenger to the Left.
As the political drama unfolds, all eyes are on how Starmer will respond to the growing calls for his resignation and what path the Labour Party will take under the potential leadership of Andy Burnham.
