The political map within the LGBT community appears to be changing. An Ifop poll conducted for the magazine Têtu provides a detailed portrait of voting intentions ahead of the presidential election scheduled for 2027. The study, published March 9, 2026, offers a point-in-time look at preferences among people who identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or other sexual and gender minorities.
This article summarizes the poll’s main results and places them in context, explaining both the numerical findings and the survey design. It also highlights what these figures may imply for campaign strategies and for assumptions about political identity within the LGBT community.
Headline results: RN and LFI emerge as front-runners
The survey finds that the Rassemblement national (RN) and La France insoumise (LFI) are virtually tied among LGBT voters. According to the poll, RN leader Jordan Bardella receives 27% of first-round intentions, placing him slightly ahead. Meanwhile, LFI leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon is credited with 25%, marking a sharp rise relative to previous measures.
These levels represent significant movements since the earlier Ifop study from February 2026. For the RN, the figure corresponds to an increase of 10 points compared with that prior snapshot. For Mélenchon, the gain is even more pronounced: an increase of 15 points among LGBT respondents.
Where the rest of the spectrum stands
Beyond the two leaders, other political groupings show different dynamics. The combined center block—represented by figures such as Gabriel Attal and Édouard Philippe—totals 17% of intentions, a decline compared with the center’s 2026 level of 22% (then associated with President Emmanuel Macron). This points to a contraction of centrist support within the sampled LGBT population.
On the center-left and green flank, stability appears to persist. The poll attributes 16% of votes to the ecologist and social-democratic list when combined—specifically Raphaël Glucksmann at 10% and Marine Tondelier at 6%. That combined share remains similar to the 2026 figure and is modestly higher than for the overall electorate.
Conservative parties and low support
Support for the conservative mainstream within the LGBT sample is limited. The position of Les Républicains, personified in the survey by party leader Bruno Retailleau, registers just 3% of intentions. This suggests that the party’s conservative platform has low resonance among these respondents.
Political identity and broader patterns
The poll also asks about ideological self-placement. Some 56% of LGBT respondents describe themselves as being on the left, compared with 44% across the general population sampled. This higher rate of left-leaning self-identification helps explain stronger showings for leftist candidates but does not fully contain the recent gains for RN.
Analysts should note that the RN’s rise within the LGBT sample is still proportionally less than its standing in the national electorate: the party records 36% of first-round intentions among all respondents, according to the same survey series.
Methodology and limits of interpretation
The poll is an online survey carried out by Ifop for Têtu. It was implemented from 1 to 6 February on a sample of 1,137 people who identify as LGBT, drawn from a larger panel of 10,196 French adults aged 18 and over meant to be representative of the population. The reported margin of error ranges between 1.4 and 3.1 points. As with any cross-sectional study, these figures represent a momentary snapshot and do not predict the final result.
Readers should interpret the trends carefully: short-term shifts can reflect campaign events, candidate positioning, media cycles, or sampling variability. The rise of both RN and LFI within this group demonstrates an evolving political landscape, but it is not definitive proof of long-term transformation.
Implications and questions for future research
For political strategists and observers, the findings raise several questions. Why has RN gained ground within a constituency often assumed to favor progressive parties? What drives Mélenchon’s surge among LGBT voters? Are these shifts concentrated in specific subgroups (age, region, urban vs. rural) or linked to issue-specific concerns such as economic policy, social rights, or perceptions of representation?
Future polling that disaggregates by demographic characteristics and tracks changes over time will be necessary to answer these questions. For now, the Ifop study published March 9, 2026, invites a reexamination of assumptions about voting behavior in the LGBT community and underscores how political allegiances can evolve rapidly.