The UK’s decision to leave the European Union has had profound and lasting effects on both its economy and political landscape. Contrary to initial predictions, the UK’s economy has shown resilience, outpacing its European neighbors since the 2016 referendum. Meanwhile, the political landscape, particularly in Scotland, has undergone significant changes, with support for Scottish independence reaching near-record levels.
This transformation has been driven by a complex interplay of economic policies, political strategies, and public sentiment. As the UK continues to navigate its post-Brexit future, understanding these shifts is crucial for grasping the broader implications of this historic decision.
The Economic Landscape Post-Brexit
The UK’s economy has experienced notable growth since the Brexit referendum. According to a report from the Centre for Policy Studies, the UK economy has grown by 12.1% since 2016 and by 5.3% since officially leaving the EU. This growth has outpaced that of other European G7 countries, including France, Germany, and Italy.
Dr. Gerard Lyons, a leading economist, argues that the UK’s economic challenges are not primarily due to Brexit but rather to the lack of effective pro-growth policies. He emphasizes that the UK’s weaker GDP per capita is largely a result of domestic policy failures and record-breaking net migration figures, both of which are within the control of Westminster politicians.
The report also highlights that renewed closeness with the EU could hinder the UK’s economic potential. The EU’s share of the global economy has been declining, dropping from 15.5% in 2016 to 14.0% in 2026. Dr. Lyons suggests that the UK should focus on leveraging its post-Brexit freedoms to strike new trade deals with fast-growing regions of the world, rather than being constrained by EU regulations.
The Political Shifts in Scotland
The Brexit vote has significantly altered the political landscape in Scotland. The decision to leave the EU bolstered support for Scottish independence, which has reached near-record levels a decade after the referendum. Kezia Dugdale, former leader of Scottish Labour, noted that the Brexit vote created a sense of unfairness among many Scots, as Scotland voted comprehensively to remain in the EU but was nonetheless taken out.
This sense of betrayal has sustained support for independence, which currently stands at around 50% reaching 55% in some polls. Dugdale recalled feeling utterly devastated by the Brexit result and believed it presented Scots with a binary choice: an independent Scotland in Europe or a Boris Johnson-led Brexit Britain.
However, the expected tidal wave of support for independence did not materialize. Political crises, including the Covid pandemic, the Ukraine war, and Donald Trump‘s presidencies, translated into deep insecurity about the economy and public services. Ruth Davidson, former leader of the Scottish Conservatives, noted that the Boris effect on support for independence was less significant than anticipated.
The Broader Political Impact
Brexit has fractured British politics, leading to a series of prime ministers grappling with the consequences of the UK’s departure from the EU. The latest, Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer, has faced a sluggish economy and a divided electorate. Historian Anthony Seldon noted that Cameron called the referendum hoping it would end arguments about relations with Europe, but it did not.
The political parties have also fractured. The Conservative Party pushed out members who wanted a softer Brexit, while Labour has internal divisions between those who want closer ties with the EU and those who want to avoid reopening old wounds. Millions of voters have deserted the two big parties for alternatives, including the left-leaning Green Party and the hard-right Reform UK led by Nigel Farage.
Cynicism and political violence have grown, with the economy struggling due to new barriers to trade with the UK’s closest neighbors. Hannah White, director of the Institute for Government think tank, noted that politicians have not been upfront with the public about the challenges of balancing taxes, debt, and public services. This has led to widespread disappointment and a loss of trust in politicians.
